Paul Shaman

Paul Shaman
  • Professor Emeritus of Statistics

Contact Information

  • office Address:

    425 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
    3730 Walnut St.
    Philadelphia, PA 19104

Research Interests: time series analysis

Overview

Education

PhD, Columbia University, 1966; MA, Columbia University, 1964; AB, Dartmouth College, 1961

Recent Consulting

Expert witness, probability analysis, U.S. Postal Service and State of New Jersey, 1993-94; Expert witness, statistical analysis, Sprague and Sprague, Philadelphia, 1994; Expert witness, statistical analysis, Duane, Morris & Heckscher, Philadelphia, 1995-97

Academic Positions Held

Wharton: 1977-present (Chairperson, Statistics Department, 1990-2002). Previous appointments: Carnegie Mellon University, Stanford University, New York University

Other Positions

Program Director for Statistics and Probability, National Science Foundation, 1984-85

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Teaching

Past Courses

  • BEPP454 - APPL STAT METHD FOR ACTU

    One half of the course is devoted to the study of time series, including ARIMA modeling and forecasting. The other half studies modificatons in random variables due to deductibles, co-payments, policy limits, and elements of simulaton. This course is a possible entry point into the actuarial science program. No INSR course is a pre-requisite for INSR 854. The Society of Actuaries has approved INSR 854 for VEE credit on the topic of time series.

  • BEPP854 - APPL STAT METHD FOR ACTU

    One half of the course is devoted to the study of time series, including ARIMA modeling and forecasting. The other half studies modificatons in random variables due to deductibles, co-payments, policy limits, and elements of simulation. This course is a possibly entry point into the actuarial science program. No INSR course is a pre-requisite for INSR 854. The Society of Actuaries has approved INSR 854 for VEE credit on the topic of time series.

  • STAT101 - INTRO BUSINESS STAT

    Data summaries and descriptive statistics; introduction to a statistical computer package; Probability: distributions, expectation, variance, covariance, portfolios, central limit theorem; statistical inference of univariate data; Statistical inference for bivariate data: inference for intrinsically linear simple regression models. This course will have a business focus, but is not inappropriate for students in the college.

  • STAT102 - INTRO BUSINESS STAT

    Continuation of STAT 101. A thorough treatment of multiple regression, model selection, analysis of variance, linear logistic regression; introduction to time series. Business applications.

  • STAT111 - INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS

    Introduction to concepts in probability. Basic statistical inference procedures of estimation, confidence intervals and hypothesis testing directed towards applications in science and medicine. The use of the JMP statistical package.

  • STAT399 - INDEPENDENT STUDY

  • STAT430 - PROBABILITY

    Discrete and continuous sample spaces and probability; random variables, distributions, independence; expectation and generating functions; Markov chains and recurrence theory.

  • STAT431 - STATISTICAL INFERENCE

    Graphical displays; one- and two-sample confidence intervals; one- and two-sample hypothesis tests; one- and two-way ANOVA; simple and multiple linear least-squares regression; nonlinear regression; variable selection; logistic regression; categorical data analysis; goodness-of-fit tests. A methodology course. This course does not have business applications but has significant overlap with STAT 101 and 102.

  • STAT435 - FORECASTING METHODS MGMT

    This course provides an introduction to the wide range of techniques available for statistical forecasting. Qualitative techniques, smoothing and decomposition of time series, regression, adaptive methods, autoregressive-moving average modeling, and ARCH and GARCH formulations will be surveyed. The emphasis will be on applications, rather than technical foundations and derivations. The techniques will be studied critically, with examination of their usefulness and limitations.

  • STAT454 - APPL STAT METHD FOR ACTU

    One half of the course is devoted to the study of time series, including ARIMA modeling and forecasting. The other half studies modifications in random variables due to deductibles, co-payments, policy limits, and elements of simulation. This course is a possible entry point into the actuarial science program. The Society of Actuaries has approved STAT 854 for VEE credit on the topic of time series.

  • STAT520 - APPLIED ECONOMETRICS I

    This is a course in econometrics for graduate students. The goal is to prepare students for empirical research by studying econometric methodology and its theoretical foundations. Students taking the course should be familiar with elementary statistical methodology and basic linear algebra, and should have some programming experience. Topics include conditional expectation and linear projection, asymptotic statistical theory, ordinary least squares estimation, the bootstrap and jackknife, instrumental variables and two-stage least squares, specification tests, systems of equations, generalized least squares, and introduction to use of linear panel data models.

  • STAT521 - APPLIED ECONOMETRICS II

    Topics include system estimation with instrumental variables, fixed effects and random effects estimation, M-estimation, nonlinear regression, quantile regression, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, minimum distance estimation, and binary and multinomial response models. Both theory and applications will be stressed.

  • STAT621 - ACC REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    STAT 621 is intended for students with recent, practical knowledge of the use of regression analysis in the context of business applications. This course covers the material of STAT 613, but omits the foundations to focus on regression modeling. The course reviews statistical hypothesis testing and confidence intervals for the sake of standardizing terminology and introducing software, and then moves into regression modeling. The pace presumes recent exposure to both the theory and practice of regression and will not be accommodating to students who have not seen or used these methods previously. The interpretation of regression models within the context of applications will be stressed, presuming knowledge of the underlying assumptions and derivations. The scope of regression modeling that is covered includes multiple regression analysis with categorical effects, regression diagnostic procedures, interactions, and time series structure. The presentation of the course relies on computer software that will be introduced in the initial lectures.

  • STAT701 - MODERN DATA MINING

    Modern Data Mining: Statistics or Data Science has been evolving rapidly to keep up with the modern world. While classical multiple regression and logistic regression technique continue to be the major tools we go beyond to include methods built on top of linear models such as LASSO and Ridge regression. Contemporary methods such as KNN (K nearest neighbor), Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, Principal Component Analyses (PCA), the bootstrap and others are also covered. Text mining especially through PCA is another topic of the course. While learning all the techniques, we keep in mind that our goal is to tackle real problems. Not only do we go through a large collection of interesting, challenging real-life data sets but we also learn how to use the free, powerful software "R" in connection with each of the methods exposed in the class.

  • STAT711 - FORECASTING METHODS MGMT

    This course provides an introduction to the wide range of techniques available for statistical forecasting. Qualitative techniques, smoothing and decomposition of time series, regression, adaptive methods, autoregressive-moving average modeling, and ARCH and GARCH formulations will be surveyed. The emphasis will be on applications, rather than technical foundations and derivations. The techniques will be studied critically, with examination of their usefulness and limitations.

  • STAT854 - APPL STAT METHD FOR ACTU

    One half of the course is devoted to the study of time series, including ARIMA modeling and forecasting. The other half studies modifications in random variables due to deductibles, co-payments, policy limits, and elements of simulation. This course is a possible entry point into the actuarial science program. The Society of Actuaries has approved STAT 854 for VEE credit on the topic of time series.

  • STAT899 - INDEPENDENT STUDY

  • STAT910 - FORCAS & TIME SER ANALY

    Fourier analysis of data, stationary time series, properties of autoregressive moving average models and estimation of their parameters, spectral analysis, forecasting. Discussion of applications to problems in economics, engineering, physical science, and life science.

  • STAT995 - DISSERTATION

  • STAT999 - INDEPENDENT STUDY

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